Study Finds Canada More Than 20 Years Behind on 2030 Emissions Target
A new analysis by the Canadian Climate Institute indicates that recent federal policy rollbacks have put Canada more than two decades behind schedule in meeting its Paris Agreement emissions goals, with the country currently identified as the worst-performing G7 nation.
A study released by the Canadian Climate Institute suggests that Canada is significantly off track to meet its 2030 emissions target under the Paris Agreement. The report indicates that due to recent policy changes, the country may not reach this goal until 2050, placing it more than 20 years behind schedule.
The delay is attributed largely to federal policy rollbacks implemented under Prime Minister Mark Carney. On his first day in office in March 2025, Carney eliminated the consumer carbon price. His government is also moving to repeal the electric vehicle sales mandate and cancel the oil and gas emissions cap. In June, Carney acknowledged that the country’s emissions would be higher “in the next few years” than previously projected.
Historically, Canada’s climate commitments have evolved over time. Under former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, the country promised to bring emissions down to 30 per cent below 2005 levels. In 2021, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government increased this target to between 40 and 45 per cent below 2005 levels and set a goal of hitting net-zero by mid-century.
However, current data shows limited progress. According to the latest government figures, Canada has achieved only a 10.3 per cent reduction from 2005 levels, representing a total decrease of 78 million tonnes over 21 years. This performance makes Canada the worst-performing country in the G7 regarding emissions reductions. To reach the 2030 target, the country would need to cut emissions equivalent to removing 102 million passenger gas-powered vehicles from the road.
In 2024, Environment Commissioner Jerry DeMarco stated that Canada had about 20 to 30 years worth of emissions reductions to get through to meet its 2030 target. The Canadian Climate Institute, which publishes these analyses, receives three-quarters of its funding from the federal government.
Despite the findings, the Office of Environment Minister Julie Dabrusin stated that Ottawa remains committed to reaching net-zero by 2050. The office described a pragmatic approach involving clean energy projects and electrification, noting that initiatives such as the North Coast Transmission Line are expected to reduce emissions by three million tonnes a year.