Revised Data Shows Canada’s Population Growing, Not Shrinking
Statistics Canada has revised its population estimates, revealing that the country's population is growing rather than declining. The update adjusts the count of non-permanent residents and complicates economic forecasts and government immigration targets.
New data from Statistics Canada indicates that the nation’s population is expanding, contradicting previous reports that suggested a decline. As of July 1, the total population reached 41.8 million, marking an increase of approximately 190,000 people, or 0.5%, compared to the same date in the previous year.
The revision primarily adjusted the estimated number of non-permanent residents upward. This change was driven by updates to how departures and permit extensions are counted. Consequently, the trajectory of population change shifted significantly: where earlier counts showed a loss of 236,000 people between mid-2025 and April 1, the updated figures now show a gain of 190,000 over the same period.
This adjustment has broader implications for economic analysis and policy goals. The revised data suggests that the share of non-permanent residents is declining more slowly than originally thought. This makes it more difficult for the Canadian government to meet its target of reducing non-permanent residents to 5% of the total population by the end of 2027.
Economic indicators also require recalibration. Real per-capita gross domestic product growth in the second quarter shrank by a full percentage point when accounting for the stronger-than-expected population growth. Previously, this figure had been estimated at 1.6%. Experts note that these changes make forecasting economic growth more challenging and complicate the assessment of metrics such as employment, housing, and productivity.