US Voters Remain Loyal to Trump Despite Canadian Retaliation and Rising Costs
Following the collapse of US-Canada trade talks in August 2025, Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on approximately $28 billion worth of US goods. While these measures have significantly increased costs for American manufacturers, polling suggests that Republican voters remain largely loyal to President Trump ahead of the November midterms.
In August 2025, following the imposition of 50% tariffs by President Donald Trump on $27.6 billion worth of Canadian goods, Ontario Premier Doug Ford urged Prime Minister Mark Carney to impose retaliatory tariffs on products from eight politically pivotal states, including Texas. On August 18, 2025, after trade talks collapsed, Carney announced dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs. These measures took effect on September 8, 2025, covering roughly $28 billion worth of US goods across 648 items, including steel, aluminum, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, plastics, and electronics.
The economic impact has been felt sharply by US manufacturers. Lance Thrailkill, owner of All Metals Fabricating near Dallas, reported that the price of aluminum he pays has risen 84% since US tariffs were introduced in March 2025, with a further 40% increase in 2026 alone. Businesses are forced to requote jobs frequently due to fluctuating tariff costs, placing particular pressure on small businesses which are often hit first by trade wars.
Texas is a significant target of this retaliation, having exchanged nearly US$69 billion in goods with Canada in 2025. Additionally, 830 Canadian-owned businesses employ more than 104,000 Texans. One such entity is Bombardier’s facility in Red Oak, Texas, which employs 440 full-time workers and manufactures jet wings. This operation continues despite threats from President Trump to ban sales of Canadian aircraft unless production moved to the US.
Despite these economic pressures, political support for President Trump appears resilient among his base. An Ipsos poll conducted after the collapse of trade talks found that 57% of Americans opposed additional tariffs on Canada. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll placed Trump's approval rating at about 35%, barely above his second-term low of 33%. However, interviews and polling suggest that American voters, particularly Republicans, remain largely loyal to the President, viewing the trade war through a lens of broader national grievance rather than specific Canadian retaliation.
Analysts note that while Canada's smaller economy limits its leverage, some Republican officials claim Canada needs the US market more than vice versa. The dispute has not yet translated into a decisive political headwind ahead of the November 3 midterms. Cook Political Report rates seven Senate contests and 21 House races as toss-ups, including Senate races in Texas.
