OPEC+ Delays 2027 Quota Review to Mid-November Amid Iran War Disruptions
OPEC+ has pushed back the deadline for its production capacity review, intended to set 2027 oil output quotas, from September to mid-November 2026 after the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran disrupted Middle East expansion projects.
An OPEC+ review of member production capacities, designed to determine oil output quotas for 2027, has been delayed from its original end-of-September 2026 deadline to mid-November 2026. The postponement follows disruptions to capacity expansion projects across the Middle East caused by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which has thrown future production potential estimates into uncertainty.
U.S. petroleum consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton is preparing capacity estimates for OPEC+ members, excluding Russia, Iran, and Venezuela due to U.S. sanctions. The firm will not submit its report until mid-November, a timeline that allows OPEC+ to consider the findings at its next group-wide meeting in late November. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that OPEC+ countries continue to assess maximum production capacities, though sources indicated that not all countries have submitted the data required for the review. Specific nations that have yet to provide their data were not named.
Delays to planned capacity additions could affect the assumptions underpinning assessments and potentially alter members' future quotas. Countries with lower assessed capacity may face pressure to accept lower quotas, while those expanding capacity might seek higher allocations. This dynamic complicates negotiations within the alliance. Iraq is currently seeking a higher quota and has considered leaving OPEC. The United Arab Emirates left the OPEC+ alliance in May after pushing for a higher quota to reflect its rising production capacity.
Beyond the immediate quota negotiations, strategic oil reserve buying is set to support crude demand through 2028.