'Super' El Niño Pushes Pacific Ocean Temperatures to Record Highs, Promising Warmer Canadian Winter
A developing 'super' El Niño has driven central Pacific ocean temperatures nearly 3.5°C above the 1991-2020 average, surpassing the previous 2015 record. Expected to peak in December, the event is forecast to bring warmer-than-normal winters across much of Canada and drier conditions to western provinces, while already suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity.
A powerful El Niño event currently developing in the Pacific Ocean has pushed daily sea surface temperatures to unprecedented levels, setting the stage for significant weather impacts across Canada this winter.
Daily ocean temperatures associated with this year's El Niño have reached nearly 3.5 C above the 1991-2020 average in the central Pacific Ocean. This anomaly surpasses the highest temperature anomaly recorded before this year, which was 3.08 C in 2015. The current El Niño is expected to peak sometime in December.
The effects of the climate pattern are already visible in the Atlantic basin. Atlantic Canada has experienced no hurricanes or subtropical storms so far this season, consistent with typical El Niño years. There has been only one named storm in the Atlantic basin so far this year.
For Canada, El Niño impacts on weather generally do not set in until late December. When they arrive, most of north central Canada is forecast to be two degrees warmer than normal. During the last two similar El Niño events, in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016, winter temperatures in the Prairies were as much as five degrees or more above historical norms.
Western Canada, including British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Alberta, is expected to experience drier conditions and reduced precipitation. Zeke Hausfather notes that 12 of the 13 modelling groups expect affected regions to experience 19 per cent less rainfall. These drought conditions could lead to an increased fire risk in the affected areas.
Looking further ahead, Berkeley Earth states that 2026 has a 96 per cent chance of being the warmest year on record, beating out 2024.
Despite the overarching warming trend, experts warn that day-to-day and week-to-week weather variation will persist. Normal weather patterns, including cold days and snowstorms, will still occur throughout the season.