U.S. Midterm Hopes May Not Shield Canada From Tariffs and Trade Tensions
Despite polls suggesting potential Democratic gains in the U.S. midterms, analysts warn that tariffs and bipartisan protectionism could leave Canada's economic position largely unchanged amid escalating trade disputes.
Polls indicate Democrats are poised to seize control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. While Canadian officials and citizens hope for a Republican defeat, analysts suggest this outcome may not significantly improve Canada's economic position due to the persistence of tariffs and bipartisan protectionism.
Bradley Saunders, an economist at Capital Economics, stated that Ottawa does not really care about the U.S. midterms because tariffs tend to have staying power regardless of which party imposes them. Saunders further suggested that Congress cannot force President Donald Trump to abide by the existing USMCA trade agreement, nor is it clear he needs Congressional approval to withdraw from it.
Tensions between the Trump administration and Canada have escalated recently. U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra accused Canadian officials of meddling in the U.S. electoral process. In September, trade adviser Peter Navarro warned that if Canada interferes in elections in Maine and Michigan, it will pay even more dearly.
A CTV News report of a private business lunch indicated that President Trump could blame Canada and retaliate if races in Michigan and Maine go to the Democrats, though the U.S. embassy said comments were taken out of context. An editor's note clarified that a previous version of related reporting incorrectly stated the trade war could help flip a Senate seat to Democrats in Michigan; Democrats are actually seeking to defend a crucial seat.
The economic fallout is already visible in key states. In Maine, U.S. border agency data shows border crossings from Canada declined by 25 to 30 per cent last year, impacting state tourism and weighing down household finances through tariffs on Canadian goods. Michigan conducts more than US$60-billion in annual two-way trade with Ontario alone. According to the National Taxpayers Union Foundation, tariffs have cost Michigan US$23-billion since the start of 2025.
Even a shift in Washington leadership offers no firm guarantees for Canada. California Governor Gavin Newsom promised that disrespect toward Canada would end if a Democrat wins the White House in 2029 but did not guarantee reversing tariffs. Experts warn that a weakened president could still maintain aggressive trade policies or withdraw from USMCA unilaterally, leaving continued economic uncertainty for Canada regardless of U.S. midterm election results.