CMHC: Canada Needs Up to 4.7 Million New Homes by 2036 Despite Narrowing Supply Gap
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reports that while the national housing supply gap has narrowed slightly, up to 4.7 million new homes are still required over the next decade to restore pre-pandemic affordability. Recent gains in affordability are attributed to slower population growth, but CMHC warns that a expected slowdown in construction, particularly in the ownership market, risks future shortages.
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) has released updated figures indicating that Canada requires up to nearly 4.7 million new homes over the next decade to restore pre-pandemic affordability levels by 2036. This target translates to an annual need for between 417,000 and 469,000 new housing units across both ownership and rental markets.
This current estimate represents a slight decrease from the July 2025 projection, which called for 430,000 to 480,000 new units annually. The adjustment reflects recent trends where overall housing costs have come down, partly due to slower population growth. However, the CMHC cautions that these recent gains in affordability are at risk because new home construction is expected to slow, especially in the home ownership market. If underbuilding continues, there is a risk of further housing shortages when demand strengthens again.
Regional trends show significant divergence in how the housing supply gap is evolving across major Canadian cities. Since previous estimates, the gap has narrowed in Toronto and remained stable in Vancouver. In Calgary, record housing construction has significantly reduced the supply gap. Conversely, the gap has grown larger in Montreal and Ottawa since earlier assessments. Edmonton stands out as the only large market in Canada without a housing supply gap.